Real Loop May 2021 Oregon Coast Coos and Curry County Market Update
This month high demand and competition are still being driven by lack of available inventory. We're seeing intense competition from buyers to win houses - with bidding wars, all-cash offers, waived contingencies and rent-free leasebacks increasingly common in many markets.
One reason for this is less seller traffic throughout most of the country while, in contrast, buyer traffic remains very strong, driving buyers to do whatever it takes to stand out while driving home prices up as shown in the March year over year home price appreciation with FHFA reporting 13.9%, CoreLogic 11.3% and Case-Shiller 13.2%.
Forecasters expect this appreciation to continue. How much will depend on demand remaining strong while supply continues to lag behind. As we've said before, with seller supply being reduced by the pandemic, we can expect to see some return to the market as they feel safer.
Examining supply from builders, on the other hand, we see headwinds of rising costs. You can't turn on the TV without hearing about rising costs of lumber in today's market. Robert Dietz from the National Association of Homebuilders said this: "The decline in single family home permits indicates that builders are slowing construction activity as costs rise. While housing starts were strong at the beginning of the year due to the homebuilders constructing homes that were sold pre-construction, higher costs and limited availability of building materials have now paused some projects.
“There are reasons to believe that this is likely to be an unusually long and strong housing expansion. Demand is very strong because the biggest demographic cohort in history is moving through the household formation and peak homebuying stages of its life cycle.” Referring to millennials as reaching the stage of wanting to buy homes.
He continues to say “Coronavirus related preference changes have also sharply boosted home buying demand. And at the same time, supply is unusually tight, with available homes for sale at record low levels. Double digit price gains are rationing the supply.”
With the current level of home price appreciation many are wondering about housing affordability. Looking at the housing affordability index by NAR, with higher numbers indicating more affordability, we see that homes are now more affordable than almost as far back as 2012 with a noticeable spike in the middle area where distressed properties dominated the market after the housing crash. Looking at this visual of the median income needed to purchase a median price home we see another positive indicator of housing affordability relative to what the dollar will buy.
In Coos County, Comparing 2021 to 2020 through May, the average sale price has increased 32.2% to $318,000 while the median sale price has increased 25.7% to $279,500.
Inventory is down to 1.3 months compared to 3.3 in May 2020 and 1.5 in April 2021.
Total market time for homes averaged 32 days in May compared to 84 in April 2021.
102 homes sold for an average of 99.46% of the listing price and 97.78% of the original price.
In Curry county, comparing 2021 to 2020 through May, the average sale price has decreased 2.2% to $351,100 while the median sale price has decreased 0.2% to $322,000.
Inventory is down to 2.4 months compared to 10.5 in May 2020 and 1.5 in April 2021.
Total market time for homes averaged 39 days in May compared to 88 in April 2021.
47 homes sold for an average of 98.91% of the listing price and 98.1% of the original price.
Coos & Curry county data sourced from RMLS.com and National data sourced from Keeping Current Matters. If you’d like to know more, feel free to send us questions or post comments. We are always looking for better ways to serve our community and hearing from you helps us do that. Stay safe and keep an eye out for next month's market update.